Gaming market research of 2008

Disclosure

I own stocks in Activision Blizzard(ATVI) at the time of this writing.

Background

Since I reap quite a bit of revenue from the gaming industry this year and project that I will continue to do so in the coming 5 years, I decided that it is time for me to take it as seriously as a job. After all, the 23 years of gaming in my life must account for something right? It is not time wasted like my parents have been trying to make me admit. When I started playing games, we were the minority, the “losers” and “nerds” that are socially inept. The outcasts of society.

Which is why it is very heart warming to be on the sideline cheering on the recent developments in my beloved gaming industry. It has grown and matured into this multi-billion dollar economy that people can no longer ignore and possibly become the salvation that the battered music industry is looking for. It will, one day, surpass even the movie industry due to its ease of access and interactivity.

In any case, I’ve since rescinded my place in life as a hard core gamer and plays game only for novelty and the stories of a few franchises that I’ve been following since I was young. It’s still a nice and relaxing hobby, but a few events gave me insight on how I can put those experiences to use. I started investing in the gaming industry. To say I was dead on with my choices would not be an overstatement right now. The financial levelheadedness seem to be a good balance against my obsession with games I like. I am able to look at games objectively and properly analyze its impacts on different demographics of people. Being a person of mixed cultural background who’ve lived in different countries also helps in the understanding of people. In fact, it’s all about the understanding of people.

Enough of the background information, let’s get on with what I found out after watching game play footage for 6 hours.

Analysis

Ubisoft

The French company Ubisoft is really good at making games with an artistic flare. Although their game engine and style hasn’t had any ground breaking face lift, they seem to have incorporated the Japanese’s flashy RPG fighting moves into their recent and future releases. I might just buy a few of their games when I eventually assemble a good enough entertainment system. I can only associate the result of their works to the fact that they are French.

Activision Blizzard

The news in this year is the merger of these two great company. There’s enough media coverage on the web that you don’t need to hear the details from me. What I can provide you is how well their upcoming games will be received. It will be very well received and Guitar Hero: World Tour will beat Rock Band 2. I was worried about the dilution of this brand because they came out with so many different titles for different platforms in such a short amount of time. I believe that “World Tour” platform will allow them to keep the software/hardware mix the same while amassing longevity. Starcraft 2 will be bought by 1 out of 2 Koreans so we can expect at least 20 million copies sold. WOW is business as usual since there isn’t any stunning MMORPG that is revolutionary enough to dethrone it yet. Diablo 3 is disappointing.

There is nothing new and innovative in the Activision Blizzard pipeline, which is going to be a worrying trend in say, 5 years. However, the near term profitability of this firm remains very high as they pimp out the current collection of franchises.

Electronic Arts

Surprisingly, most of the innovations are coming out from this publisher that I really don’t like. Spore will be a cash cow, but I am not sure if the money generated will be enough to cover the R&D expenses put into the game. I also don’t see any longevity, re playability or social connectivity in this game. It’s a one shot game that will be put on the shelf after “GAME OVER”. The hype is great, but it took too long and too many man hours. Expect a few of these new innovative titles to stick and gain a following to eventually mature into a franchise with many sequels. Short term profitability is in doubt, but they can still whore out their sports titles for a while.

Take Two Interactive

GTA4, enough said. After that, it’s a matter of whether or not they can stay afloat until GTA5.

THQ

Nothing surprising. They are just repackaging games that’s been done to death with upgraded graphics.

Sony

Everything they do takes too long. I mean, it’s good looking and flashy and all, but at what cost? Looking at the recent games that already came out, most of them can go toe to toe with the graphics of the Final Fantasy series. The only thing that’s left is their great storyline. It appeals less and less to me. Their @Home is a great innovation though. Seems like a persistent world that they can improve on and eventually port over to PS4. It also looks like a lot of the thing that Sony is doing with the PS3 is an experiment at something more persistent so they can eventually use it in PS4.

Sega

Die already.